During every election cycle for decades now, Republican messaging about Democrats has had three reliable themes:
• Democrats are soft on crime
• Democrats will overspend and raise taxes
• Democrats are too weak to manage a hostile world
Not only are Democrats typically unable to sidestep these narratives, they seem to have an uncanny knack for behaving in ways that feed directly into them.
President Joe Biden must have had some awareness of the political risk he was running when he decided to withdraw American forces from Afghanistan. If things were to go poorly, he would be portrayed by Republicans as just another naïve Democrat who doesn’t understand how the world works. Things of course did go poorly on August 26th when thirteen American troops lost their lives in the ISIS-K bombing in Kabul.
If Biden didn’t own Afghanistan before with his decision to withdraw, he certainly does now. With elections approaching in 2022 and control of Congress at stake, Republicans who were desperate to change the subject from the January 6th attack on our Capitol, have of course pounced. They have been almost gleeful in denouncing Biden’s handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal as “stupid”, “disgraceful” and “disastrous”.
This was always the risk inherent in an Afghan withdrawal. And the Biden Administration walked right into it. In the words of Colin Powell about Iraq, if you break it, you bought it. Afghanistan will certainly be an issue exploited by Republicans through the 2024 Presidential election. If Republicans win back the House in 2022 they will almost certainly conduct Benghazi style investigations about the withdrawal throughout 2023 and 2024.
Progressives on the far left have of course already provided ample ammunition for Republicans to cast Democrats as soft on crime. The absurd “Defund the Police” slogan is believed to have cost Democrats seats in the House in 2020, even while the party picked up seats in the Senate and regained the White House. Despite this, Justice Democrats and so called “Squad” members like Cori Bush (D-MO) and Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) continue to provide ready-made talking points to the GOP. Only a few weeks ago Bush was still proclaiming that “defunding the police is what has to happen”. Tlaib, apparently pining for an entirely law enforcement free society, has taken things even further, calling for “no more policing” whatsoever.
If the botched Afghanistan withdrawal and the anti-police rhetoric in the party haven’t already been useful enough to Republicans seeking to retake Congress next year, wait…there’s more. As if to ensure that no gift be left ungiven to Republicans, Bernie Sanders and Progressives in the House are determined to pass a $3.5 Trillion spending bill this year as well, handing the GOP yet another talking point for 2022. Republicans are already salivating at the chance to attack Democrats for this massive bill. If passed it may become known as the Act that launched 10,000 GOP campaign ads, all portraying Democrats as tax raising, big spending Socialists during next fall’s elections.
Perhaps Democrats forget or simply don’t care that in 2010 after they passed the Affordable Care Act along party lines, they proceeded to suffer the worst losses by a party in Congress in over 70 years, losing 60 plus seats in the House, and over 600 seats in State legislatures in that November’s elections. Republicans then kept control of the House until 2019. In 2022 Democrats can afford to lose less than 5 seats and still retain control of the chamber. In the Senate losing even a single seat would make Mitch McConnell (R-KY) Majority Leader again.
In January of 2021, Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee predicted that Democratic “overreach” would help propel the GOP back into the majority in 2022. In other words Scott is counting on a lack of discipline and restraint among Democrats to bring Republicans back to power. With Biden’s mishandled Afghanistan withdrawal, the continued anti-law enforcement rhetoric among some members of the party and a possible forthcoming massive spending bill sponsored by Democrats, he may be correct.
One could think that at some point Democrats may learn that there is value in simply maintaining control of the White House and Congress. Further, that the quickest way to lose that control and for Republicans to come back to power is for Democrats to try to do too much. For now however the merits of strategic restraint appear to be all but lost upon the party. Are these lessons Democrats are willing or able to learn? Republicans are patiently waiting and watching, hoping they never do.